- November 03,2022
- -
- Jake Woodward
Kelly Criterion Soccer Betting Formula
The Kelly Criterion is a statistical and mathematical formula that helps a punter estimate the maximum and minimum amount to give in a particular betting situation. In essence, the Kelly Criterion helps a punter gauge the level of risk in a wager and matches it to a punter’s desired risk betting level. The Kelly Criterion is from the field of finance, where brokers, traders, and advisors calculate the level of risk an investor should take based on the expected risk and return. However, the application of the Kelly Criterion has since spread to other fields, including but not limited to betting, cryptocurrencies, insurance, financials, and more.
What Is The Kelly Criterion Soccer Betting Strategy?
The Kelly Criterion soccer betting strategy is a scientific method and formula applied to a specific betting strategy. A punter can calculate the level of risk associated with a particular wager and the level of risk that the punter is comfortable with taking before choosing any bet. By estimating risk, a punter better understands the odds and probability of winning or losing a wager. The threat also enables punters to compare different types of bets based on risk.
Features Of The Kelly Soccer Betting Formula
Some of the key features of the Kelly Criterion soccer betting formula include a punter’s total bankroll funds, the level of acceptable risk, the opportunity cost of making a wager, whether to increase or decrease a stake in subsequent bets and the use of decimal wagers to understand the Kelly Criterion better.
Bankroll Funds
A punter should consider the level of acceptable risk based on their total funds bankroll. At any time or on any given wager, a punter shouldn’t bet more than 3% of their entire bankroll, even on a guaranteed chance. In betting, there’s no guaranteed bet or riskless wagers (except in arbitrage situations). If a punter has a high bankroll, then a punter can choose to take more risky gambles. If a punter has a lower bankroll, they may try to make risky wagers to win quick profits; however, such a bettor can lose all their funds on the back of a few losses. Estimating risk based on a punter’s bankroll is one of the critical components of the Kelly soccer betting strategy.
Level Of Acceptable Risk
A punter’s risk level is from a punter’s expectations and betting goals. If a punter is willing to take more risk in anticipation of a higher reward, a punter can make riskier wagers or set higher staking proportions. Alternatively, a risk-averse punter will be inclined to accept a lower return (profit) in exchange for a lower level of risk.
The Opportunity Cost Of Wagers
The opportunity cost of one wager is the potential income lost on other bets. Since a punter only has a limited amount of funds, a punter needs to consider the most profitable wager to make. For example, if a punter has only $1000 and wants to make a wager of $50 on a bet. If a punter can only make one wager, the punter forgoes hundreds of other chances.
Increase Or Decrease Subsequent Stakes
An increase or decrease in subsequent stakes helps punters understand their preferred style or betting system. For example, a risk-averse punter may decrease a stake after a loss and increase their stake after a win. Since winnings are from the online bookmaker, the punter increases their stake by playing with house money. Alternatively, a punter could decrease their stake after a loss to win back lost funds. However, such a progressive betting strategy can have a high risk and reward premium.
The Use Of Decimals
Using decimal odds helps a punter not only understand the odds, profit, and probability of an event, but punters also use decimals to estimate different levels of risk. Punters can measure risk on a scale and utilize decimal odds to select the best wagers when comparing different bets and wagers across other betting markets.
- Sports Industry Preview
- Soccer League Preview
- Profitable Trends
- Betting Guide
- Betting Help
- Betting Strategy
- Betting System
- Sports Betting
- World Cup
- Betting Tipsters
- Betting Bankroll
- Transfer Window
- Premier League
- Match Reviews
- Footballer Reviews
- Betting Predictions
- Club Reviews
- Manager Reviews
- Betting Odds
- Promotion Reviews
- Betting Trends
- Soccer Betting Tips Video Series
- English Football
- eSports
- Arsenal
- Borussia Dortmund
- Inter milan
- Betting Tips
- World Cup 2018
- Russia
- Italy
- Betting Expert
- Cristiano Ronaldo
- Lionel Messi
- Real Madrid
- France
- Belgium
- Brazil
- Germany
- Paul Pogba
- Marcos Ao??s Corr??a
- Timo Werner
- Aleksandr Golovin
- Sergej Milinkovic-Savic
- Alireza Jahanbakhsh
- Pione Sisto
- Denis Zakaria
- Soccer Tipsters
- Manchester United
- Hull City
- Abou Diaby
- Luc Nilis
- David Busst
- Ryan Mason
- English Premier League
- Middlesbrough F.C.
- Norwich City F.C.
- Sheffield Wednesday F.C.
- Bet Strategy
- Mix Parlay
- AS Monaco FC
- Goal Scoring Trends
- French Ligue 1
- Stade Malherbe Caen
- Stade Rennais F.C.
- Scottish Premier League
- Hibernian F.C.
- Dundee F.C.
- Kilmarnock F.C.
- Celtic F.C.
- Aberdeen F.C.
- Rangers F.C.
- Premier League
- Manchester City
- Barcelona
- FC Bayern Munich
- Carabao Cup
- Real Sociedad
- La Liga
- CD Legan??s
- Deportivo de La Coru?a
- Harry Kane
- England
- Steven Gerrard
- Juventus
- Mohamed Elyounoussi
- Danny Welbeck
- Mattia De Sciglio
- Viniciul Junior
- Flamengo
- Jose Mourinho
- Sir Alex Ferguson
- Chelsea
- Eden Hazard
- Jorginho
- Croatia
- Professional Punters
- Soccer betting tips
- Value Bets
- Betting Odds
- Mark Hughes
- Sportsbook
- Points per game
- PPG
- PPG statistics
- A.S. Roma
- Arsenal F.C.
- Tottenham Hotspur F.C.
- Liverpool F.C.
- Everton F.C.
- FK Partizan
- FK Crvena zvezda
- FC Schalke 04
- A.C. Milan
- Club Atl??tico River Plate
- Derby Della Capitale
- North London Derby
- Merseyside derby
- Eternal Derby
- Ruhr Derby
- Derby della Madonnina
- Superclasico
- World Cup 1998
- Japan
- Colombia
- Denmark
- Euro 2016
- Moscow
- Kaliningrad
- Saint Petersburg
- Nizhny Novgorod
- FC Basel
- Newspaper Betting Tipsters
- Television Betting Tipsters
- Radio Betting Tipsters
- Internet Betting Tipsters
- Soccer Betting Bankroll
- Soccer Betting Expert
- Pierre-Erick Aubameyang
- Fantasy Premier League
- Marko Arnautovic
- Wilfred Zaha
- Chris Wood
- Kyle Walker
- Cezar Azpilicueta
- Seamus Coleman
- Trent Alexander-Arnold
- Sol Bamba
- Leon Goretzka
- Jose Gimenez
- Max Meyer
- Jurgen Klopp
- Stoke City
- Coventry City F.C.
- Bookies
- Bonuses
- Alisson Becker
- Eliquim Mangala
- Anthony Martial
- Luke Shaw
- Toby Alderweireld
- Cesc Fabregas
- Ander Herrera
- Oliver Giroud
- Atletico Madrid
- Sevilla FC
- Ronaldo
- Van Nistelrooy
- Sunderland A.F.C.
- Betting Accumulators
- Mohamed Salah
- Indian Super League
- Pep Guardiola
- Livescores
- Golden Generation
- World Cup 2006
- SSC Napoli
- David De Gea
- Nick Pope
- Allison Becker
- Lukasz Fabianski
- Hugo Lloris
- Ederson Moraes
- VAR
- Dirk Kuyt
- Diego Milito
- Park Ji-Sung
- Thomas Muller
- Soccer Betting Facts
- 1X2
- Handicap Betting
- Total Goals
- SoccerTipsters
- Free Soccer Predictions
- Live Betting
- Bookmaker
- World Cup
- Qatar 2022
- PSG
- Ngolo Kante
- Claude Makelele
- American Football
- E-Sports
- Kathmandu Stadium
- Hillsborough
- CTE
- Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy
- FIFA
- European Super League
- UEFA
- Neymar
- Professional Footballer
- EPL
- Christian Pulisic
- Lance Armstrong
- Tonya Harding
- Black Sox
- Match Fixing
- Calciopoli
- Formula One Spygate
- Women World Cup
- Series A
- Georgio Chiellini
- Fiorentina
- Bundesliga
- European Handicaps
- Accumulator Bets
- Parlays
- Arbitrage Betting
- Progressive Betting
- Martingale
- Oscar's grind
- Paroli System
- Martindale System
- David Moyes
- Southampton
- Betting Blog
- FA Cup
- SPAL
- Sampdoria
- RB Leipzig
- Champions League
- Betting On Soccer
- Casino Betting
- Teaser Bet
- Betting Bankroll
- Kelly Criterion
- In Play Betting
- Hedging
- Betting Market
- Matched Betting
- Betting Exchange
- Labouchere
- Serie B
- Crotone
- Italy Serie B
- Serie C
- Simeon Nwankwo
- Cittadella
- Liverpool
- UEFA Champions League
- Match predictions
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Atalanta
- Valencia
- Serie A
- Staking method
- Proportional Betting
- Martingale System
- Fibonacci System
- Arbitrage
- Underdogs
- Betting On Underdogs
- Beat The Bookies
- soccer betting
- Spread Betting
- Opening Odds
- Closing Odds
- Sports Betting Addiction
- Betting Disorder
- Sports Betting in Indonesia
- Indonesia
- Betting On Sports
- Sports Betting in Malaysia
- Ascot Sports
- Betting Guide
- Indo Odds
- Sports Betting In Thailand
- Thailand Sportsbook
- Thailand Casinos
- Asian Bookies
- In-play Betting
- Over/Under
- betting system
- Europa league
- Leicester City
- Benevento Calcio
- Olympics
- Euro Cup
- America Cup
- betting trends
- BTTS
- Villarreal CF
- Betting on Casino
- Casino
- House Edge
- bankroll
- bankroll management
- Betting Bankroll Management
- Coronavirus
- Betting Value
- Asian Handicap
- Parlay
- Betting Probability
- betting on draw
- Draw Bets
- Egyptian Premier League
- French Ligue 2
- English League Two
- Correct Score
- Double Chance
- Fixed Odds
- Sportsbook Review
- Bet365
- Statistical Trends
- Marcus Rashford
- Alexandre Lacazette
- Son Heung-Min
- Calvert-Lewin
- Richarlison
- bookmakers
- IMSports
- IMesports
- Betting strategies
- Betting Algorithm
- Invictus
- Accumulator Generator
- Betegy
- AFC Champions League
- Asian Football Champions League
- Galatasaray
- Turkey Super League
- Istanbul Basaksehir
- Trabzonspor
- tipsters
- Smart Punter
- UEFA Euro 2020
- FC Barcelona
- Barça
- Takefusa Kubo
- Hwang Hee-chan
- Takumi Minamino
- Sardar Azmoun
- Erling Haaland
- Jadon Sancho
- Ansu Fati
- Alphonso Davies
- Vinícius Júnior
- Erling Braut Haaland
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
- German Super Cup
- French League Cup
- Constant Kelly
- Football Betting Tips
- Sports Betting Trading
- mathematical expectation
- expected value
- Asian Football Leagues
- Chinese Super League
- K League
- Bet On Corners
- Double Chance Betting
- Sportsbooks
- Red devils
- Rollover
- Welcome Bonuses
- Gerard Deulofeu
- EFL Championship
- Ismaïla Sarr
- Sbotop
- Sbotop Magazine
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Gareth Bale
- Superstitions
- MAXBET
- SBOBET
- M8bet
- Robert Lewandowski
- Odd And Even
- Pinnacle Sports
- Positive Progression
- Bettorclub
- Corner Kicks
- Sheffield United
- Luis Muriel
- Deportivo Cali
- Yankee Bet
- Trixie Combo Bet
- Underdogs Parlay
- Negative Progression
- d'Alembert
- Kevin De Bruyne
- Luka Modric
- Sergio Busquets
- Tony Cross
- Miralem Pjanic
- Frankie de Jong
- Online Slot
- Slot Machine
- RTP
- Romelu Lukaku
- Karim Benzema
- Wayne Rooney
- Derby County
- Dusan Vlahovic
- Vinicius Jr
- MLS
- New England Revolution
- Carles Gil
- Crystal Palace
- Conor Gallagher
- 3-Way Handicap
- Ferran Torres
- Xavi Hernández
- Gabriel Martinelli
- Transfer windows
- Kylian Mbappé
- Franck Kessié
- Ousmane Dembélé
- Paulo Dybala
- Sergio Aguero
- Independiente de Avellaneda
- Diego Maradona
- Luis Díaz
- Trent Alexander Arnold
- Bayern Munich
- Emile Smith Rowe
- Overwatch
- First Person Shooter
- eSports Betting
- Blackjack
- Insurance Bets
- Jude Bellingham
- Sadio Mané
- Jamal Musiala
- Goalkeepers
- Manuel Neuer
- Gianluigi Donnarumma
- Thibaut Courtois
- Nottigham Forest
- Gleison Bremer
- Torino FC
- Hajduk Split
- Torcida Split
- Bayern Leverkusen
- Frenkie de Jong
- Aurélien Tchouaméni
- Tiémoué Bakayoko
- Freiburg
- Nico Schlotterbeck
- Acca
- Betting Algorithms
- Algorithm
- Statistical Betting
- Return On Investment
- ROI
- Betting Markets
- Decimals Odds
- Fractions Odds
- Handicap Odds
- Accumulator Bet
- Relegation
- Both Teams To Score
- Head-To-Head
- Goals Scored
- Dutching
- Early Cashout
- Accumulator Betting
- Over 1.5 Goals
- Total Goal
- Betting Formula
- Decimal Odds
- Both Team To Score
- Underdog
- Goal Scorer System
- Scoreline Betting System
- Handicap Betting System
- Positive Progression System
- Betting Tipsters
- Sports Prediction
- CMD368
- Bookie
- Sports Bookie
- Tipster
- Betting Tipster
- Cover a Bet
- Bet Against Yourself
- Money Management Strategy
- Handicapping Skills
- Handicapping
- Heinz System
- Martingale Betting
- Round Robin
- 1-3-2-6 System
- D’Alembert System
- Predictions
- Betting Exchanges
- Soccer Betting Mistakes
- Betting Mistakes
- Statistical Analysis
- Team Statistics
- Betting Data And Stats
- Historical Results
- Data Driven Strategies
- Sports Analytics
- Analytics
- Sports Betting Analytics
- Betting Analytics
- Deciphering Betting Odds
- Comprehending Betting Odds
- Probability
- Fractional Odds
- Money Line
- Futures Bet
- Prop Bet
- Goliath Bet
- Data Analysis
- Statistics And Data Analysis
- Historical Performances
- Statistical Evaluations
- Betting Strategy
- Betting Model
- Moneyline
- Prop Bets
- Major League Soccer
- Data Management
- 1X On Home
- Fibonacci Strategy
- Martingale Strategy
- Historical Performance
- Sports Betting Misconceptions
- Sports Betting Myths
- Soccer Betting Strategy
- Mathematical
- Statistical Model
- Advanced Analytics
- Performance Indicators
- Predictive Models
- Expected Goals
- Performance Analysis
- Bankroll Goals
- Stop-Loss Strategies
- International Friendly
- Per 90s
- Shooting Percentage
- Ball Possession
- xGChain
- Value Bet
- Compare Odds
- Bet Tracking
- Identifying Trends
- Betting Patterns
- In-Play Bet
- Single Handicap
- Double Handicap
- Quarter Handicap
- Analyzing Statistics
- Historical Data
- Expert Tipster
- Betting Prediction
- Draw No Bet
- Draw Betting
- Data-Driven
- Prop Betting
- Corners
- Own Goal
- Losing Streaks
- Emotional Management
- Analytical Tools
- Fantasy Soccer
- Fantasy Sports
- American Odds
- Implied Probability
- Betting Portfolio
- Diversified Betting Portfolio
- Betting Yield
- Each Way Betting
- Time Management
- Successful Sports Betting
- Head-to-Head Betting
- Lay Betting
- Stacking Techniques
- Stacking
- Insurance Betting System
- Mathematical Betting
- Statistical Analysis And Distributions
- Regression Analysis
- Statistical Significance
- Probability Distributions
- Bayesian Network
- Poisson Distribution
- Binomial Distribution
- Hedge Betting
- Return to Player
- Malaysian Sports Betting
- Form And Statistics
- Leeds United
- Howard Wilkins
- Marco Bielsa
- Malaysia
- Football Betting
- Badminton Betting
- Horse Racing
- Malaysian Super League
- Johor Darul Ta’zim FC
- Sri Pahang FC
- Persatuan Bolasepak Selangor FC
- Psychology Of Betting
- Risk-Taking
- Political Bet