Learn What Is Value Bet And How To Win With It

• February 08,2023
• -
• Oscar Holt

Learn What Is Value Bet And How To Win With It

In life, we’re always looking for things that have value. Personal possessions, relationships, and money - all have a specific value. Surprisingly - or unsurprisingly, depending on how you’re looking at it - the betting world isn’t all that different from the real world. You should only look for bets that bring you value when you’re just starting. What does that mean? In essence, new players should only look for chances when the odds outweigh the probability of winning. That’s the key to winning bets consistently. But value betting is hard to explain in a single sentence. That’s why you’re looking at this guide on your screen now.  

What Is Value Betting?

Value betting is finding the right bets where the player has the edge over the bookie. That means you’ve either found a chance with an expected positive value or an arbitrage opportunity. Value betting is finding bets where you have the edge over the bookmaker. Finding chances can do this with positive expected value or by finding arbitrage opportunities. If you bet with positive practical value, you can make some money in the long run. Conversely, betting with a practical negative value will result in losing money.

What Is True Probability?

So how do you find actual probability anyway? True probability is the odds of something happening without the bookmaker’s margin. Let’s say someone’s betting on coin tosses. Every time you toss a coin, there’s a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads or tails. However, the bookie might give you the odds of 1.7 to 1 on the coin landing on heads, which means for every dollar you bet, you can $1.7. The bookies’ margin, in this case, is 30%. That’s the difference between actual probability and the odds your bookie offers you.

How To Find Value Bets

That’s what a value bet is. Not hard to comprehend. All you need to do now is find a value bet. Relatively straightforward, right? Far from it. You couldn’t ace a test after listening to the first lecture. You need more knowledge before you can recognize and select one. Here’s how you can do this:

Arbitrage Opportunities

First, look for arbitrage opportunities. Look at two bookmakers, pick one event, and see what odds they’re offering. Let’s say you’re looking to bet on a coin toss again, and bookie A offers 1.9 to 1 odds while bookie B provides 2 to 1. By betting a dollar on heads with bookie A and another dollar on tails with bookie B, you’ll win some money no matter what happens. No matter what’s happening, you’re betting $2, and the coin will only land on one side. So if it lands on heads, you’ll win $1.9 from bookie A and $2 from bookie B if it lands on tails.

Positive Expected Value Bets

There’s always a 50/50 chance of winning in games where there’s no draw. Easy enough? Well, favorable expected value bets are the odds the bookie gives you that are better than the actual probability of an event happening. Are you confused? Listen, if you have a 50/50 chance of winning and the odds a bookie offers are 1.9 to 1, that’s a positive expected value bet. Of course, these bets are pretty hard to come by, but if you look for them long and hard, you can find them.

Betting Calculator

There are lots of betting calculators online that will help you find value bets. You need to enter the odds you’re getting and the actual probability of an event happening, and it will tell you if it’s a positive expected value bet.

Betting Software

Many betting software programs can help you find value bets. They usually have a database of bookmakers and their odds. They then compare those odds to the actual probability of an event to find favorable expected value bets. While many of these apps are free, we pay for the best ones. And they aren’t cheap. But to make money, you must be ready to spend it first. Look up betting software, calculate the potential wins, and start saving up. It will pay off.

Closing Thoughts

Do You want to start winning more money from betting? Then you need to master value betting. That way, you’ll be able to make serious money in the long run. Examine multiple bookies, find a betting calculator, and even betting software if needed.