Finding Value On Soccer Betting Odds

January 08,2021
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Kenneth Nicholson

Value On Soccer Betting Odds

Value Betting is a widely used betting strategy by expert bettors. This type of prediction is the one that makes a bettor win money. This is because they provide a possible profit higher than that estimated by the bookmaker. Therefore, knowing how to identify them will lead us to be on par with the best punters. Since soccer is the most prominent event in all sportsbooks and the favorite of the majority, here we will show you how to find value on soccer betting odds.

How The Value Bets Work

A value bet is one to which the sportsbook has assigned a higher odd than we think it should have. In that sense, it is a bet that pays more than it should. Betting odds are approximately the inverse of the occurring probability estimated by bookies for each possible outcome. Then, we can also conclude that the probability of occurrence that we estimate in a value bet will be greater than that estimated by the bookie.

Recall that the calculation of the betting odds comes from the estimates made by the bookmaker on the probability of an event happening—for example, the victory of team Z over team X. But, how can you detect the value bets? To do this, you must calculate the probability the bookie has estimated. Then, you must compare it with the probability you have estimated for that possible result. If the probability percentage estimated by us is higher than that of the bookmaker, we will be before a value bet. Let's look at an example through a hypothetical soccer game. Suppose that Napoli faces Sampdoria in Italian Serie A. The betting odds are as shown below.

Napoli's victory:

Odd = $ 1.75 / Implicit probability = 57.14%.

Sampdoria win:

Odd = $ 2.20 / Implied probability = 45.45%.

Probabilities have been calculated based on odds using this formula:

Probability = 1 / odds * 100

57.14% = 1 / 1.75 * 100

45.45% = 1 / 2.20 * 100

Once these percentages are obtained, we will compare them with ours. These will be obtained through a detailed analysis of several important elements. Among them are recent results at home and away, injured players, goals scored and conceded, etc. If, in this case, we estimated a probability of victory for Napoli of 70%, we would be before a value bet. Therefore, the bookmaker would be paying us more than that result would be worth.

Not everyone is willing or does not have time to carry out a complete match analysis. For this reason, many bettors use web pages, programs, and even spreadsheets to assess the bookies' odds. They use these tools to apply the formula mentioned before and detect value bets. Likewise, experience as a soccer expert can help us detect value bets. This can happen when, for example, we know that a team's victory chances are greater when they face another particular team. To be successful as a medium and long-term bettor, you should look for value bets when making your football predictions.

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