Four Of The Most Accurate Predictions In EPL

January 05,2019
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Kenneth Nicholson

Four Of The Most Accurate Predictions In The English Premier League

This article was last updated on the 10th September 2019

If you clicked on this article, then you probably already know that there is more to gambling to just luck. Strategy, methodology trends, statistical data and patterns are all extremely integral to sports as well as sports. The points in this article are meant to guide you in selecting the most relevant and accurate bets if you are a fan of the English Premier League. Sometimes, if you take into consideration past occurrences, we can find patterns that would help us gauge the outcome of future matches. Predictions are often based on previous matches and form. So, based on this argument, let’s take a look at some of the most accurate predictions in the English Premier League.

Home Versus Away

As history suggests, a team is more likely to win when they play in their home stadium. This is true for most team-based sports, like cricket, basketball or football. Studies and analysis were done to indicate that, in most cases, home teams stand a 40% chance of winning as compared to their opponents. But why is this so? It may be the fans, roaring in support of their favorite team, screaming, chanting and even singing. Fans are emotionally invested in games, treat players like Gods, pretty much worship the ground they walk on and often break out into tears when their team wins or loses. When passions run this deep, players are hellbent on making sure that they don’t disappoint their legions of fans. The away team would have to deal with the exact opposite, and all the negativity and hostility will definitely take a toll on their confidence, and consequently, their form. Another factor that could affect the players and their wellbeing fatigue induced by travel. When it comes to something like football that requires one to be fully focused and in tip-top shape, something as simple as jet lag and change in sleep patterns could drastically impact play. The unfamiliarity of a new environment would also be a contributing factor. The home team would know the stadium like the back of their hand. Having practiced and warmed up there for a long period of time, they would generally be more comfortable with their surroundings, giving them quite a good chance of winning if they are playing at home. This chance increases to about 50% if the home team has accumulated more points than their opponents. The fact is, home advantage is very real and should not be discounted.

Bogey Teams Are More Real Than You May Think!

With many Premier League clubs, there is always that one team that they can never seem to beat. And talking of bogey teams, take for example two super teams like Arsenal Vs. Sunderland or Chelsea Vs. Spurs. There is very little chance of Spurs upsetting Chelsea at Stamford Bridge or Spurs beating the naturally strong team Arsenal when they pay them a visit in London. Brighton, for example, has a 78% loss rate against Chelsea. Bournemouth never seems to get lucky with Manchester City or Arsenal, losing to them over 80% of the time. However, there are instances when lady luck smiles of the opponents, but when you consider history, chances of luck playing out are very thin. Even the best have faults, unfortunately.

History Repeats Itself!

In most instances, it is common for a home team to retain their fixtures if they won in the previous match. We are not sure whether this is due to confidence, but it makes lots of sense because most of the EPL’s big teams stand a higher chance of gaining more points in their next home match and especially if they have won their previous home games. Often times, this is irrespective of their opposition. Although home advantages are something one should consider, it is also integral to look at the teams that are involved.

If a top flight, clearly superior club who are on a winning streak is taking on a newly promoted team in an away game, for example, it will be wise to side with the stronger team, despite the newly promoted one having the home advantage. It is therefore imperative to be extra careful while placing these bets for away teams if the opposition had gained at least 3 points at home.

A Strong Team has 50-50 Chance of Winning or Losing

Betting on two strong teams can be likened to tossing a coin in the air. You have 50% chances of winning and 50% chances of losing if you don’t consider draws of course. Backing the underdog (team with more points) could work in your favor, but this is not always the case. Maybe your chosen strategy should incorporate other things like the team’s previous fixtures. The above is a good guideline, and if implemented correctly, it should assist you to make the most out of your English Premier League bets.